Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
