Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".